Beliefs of Top Officials

Beliefs and Cognitions of Top Government Officials

Principle 7:

Beliefs and Cognitions of Top Officials

Foreign policy is the creation of man. Man's creations reflect the beliefs, personalities, character and experiences of their creator. In the case of American foreign policy, the creator tends to be the President of the United States.

The American leader's personal beliefs, subjective perceptions, and ideological assumptions play a significant role in shaping foreign policy and American relations with the various nations of the world. One leader's "self-determining socialist state" is another's "evil empire." One leader defines freedom as "freedom from" an undesirable state (i.e., capitalist oppression) while another defines freedom as "freedom to be” (i.e., to be a capitalist). Semantic and ideological definition of abstract concepts such as freedom, justice, democracy, equality, peace and prosperity differs from leader to leader. As leaders are replaced, the definitions change and the foreign policy related to those definitions also changes.

The leader's existing perceptions and understandings play an important role in shaping foreign policy. The leader's past information and understandings are used to create an image of the world, other leaders, and the intentions of other leaders. This image may be an accurate portrayal of the world or may be highly inaccurate and based on misinformation and misperceptions. As the leader encounters new information and witnesses new events, the leader fits this new information into his existing image of the world. All new information is understood within the context of the existing information and existing perceptions.

"The evidence from both psychology and history overwhelmingly supports the view that decision makers tend to fit incoming information into their existing theories and images. Indeed, their theories and images play a large part in determining what they notice. In other words, actors tend to perceive what they expect. Furthermore, a theory will have greater impact on the actor's interpretation of data the greater the ambiguity of the data and the higher the degree of confidence with which the actor holds the theory.... Facts can be interpreted and indeed identified only with the aid of hypotheses and theories. Pure empiricism is impossible, and it would be unwise to revise theories in light of every bit of information that does not conform to them.... (I)f a prevailing view is supported by many theories and by a large pool of findings, it should not be quickly altered. Too little rigidity can be as bas as too much." (Jervis, in Ikenberry, 462- 463)

This tendency to adjust all incoming information to more closely fit existing beliefs and images is called "psycho-logic." It leads to the creation of "a 'balanced' cognitive structure" or a condition in which all things considered to be good remain good, and all things considered to be bad remain bad." (Ableson, 4-5) Presidents have considerable experience with the world and probably have firm belief systems in place by the time of their election. These belief systems are used as the foundation for evaluating information and making decisions. If the underlying belief system is based on misinformation and misperceptions, all information is likely to be misperceived and the decisions are likely to be flawed.

The leader's personality also impacts on foreign policy. Sigmund Freud is co-author of a political psychoanalysis of President Woodrow Wilson, linking many of Wilson's foreign policy decisions, including entry into World War I and support for the League of Nations, to Wilson's early childhood relations with his parents and his family experiences. Freud believes leader personality is important in shaping human history and in shaping foreign policies that impact on that history.

"Fools, visionaries, sufferers from delusions, neurotics and lunatics have played great roles at all times in the history of mankind and not merely when the accident of birth had bequeathed them sovereignty. Usually they have wreaked havoc; but not always. Such persons have exercised far-reaching influence upon their own and later times, they have given impetus to important cultural movements and have made great discoveries. They have been able to accomplish such achievements on the one hand through the help of the intact portion of their personalities, that is to say in spite of their abnormalities; but on the other hand it is often precisely the pathological traits of their characters, the one-sidedness of their development, the abnormal strengthening of certain desires, the uncritical and unrestrained abandonment to a single aim, which give them the power to drag others after them and to overcome the resistance of the world." (Freud, xvi)

Political scientist James David Barber studies presidential behavior and concludes that some presidents exhibit a positive mind-set while others exhibit a negative mind-set; these positive or negative mind-sets may predispose a president toward selection of specific foreign policy choices. For example, both Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon probably view their presidential experiences as more negative than positive, especially in the area of foreign relations. It is possible this negative mind-set encourages a more cavalier attitude in bombing civilian targets and non-military installations in the Viet Nam War. Barber also concludes that some presidents are more active and "hands-on" in the performance of their duties, while others are more passive and inactive in the performance of their duties. These active or passive dispositions also have foreign policy implications. For example, Barber considers President Dwight Eisenhower to be relatively passive, especially during Eisenhower's second term. The presidential campaign in 1960 includes arguments the Eisenhower administration had been soft on communism, especially in its failure to be more decisive concerning Red China's aggression on off-shore islands held by the rival Nationalist Chinese. Eisenhower's passivity is a possible cause of the failure to be decisive on this foreign policy issue.

Leader personality is occasionally far more extreme than to be merely "negative" or "passive;" in these cases, the domestic and foreign policy choices of the leader are also likely to be more extreme. The personal paranoia of both German dictator Adolf Hitler and Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, the egomania of both Ugandan dictator Idi Amin and Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, and the arrogance of Nicaraguan dictators General Debayle Somoza and Daniel Ortega, and the extravagance of Haitian dictators Francois "Papa Doc" and Jean Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier shapes the foreign policy decisions of their respective regimes. The extreme personalities of these foreign leaders is also likely to influence the American president's, and public's choice among alternative foreign policies.

The leader's character is also important. Leaders are no less likely than the average citizens of their nations to hold personal prejudices and irrational opinions, to be driven by emotion and personality conflicts, to experience depression, burn-out and emotional breakdown, and to be subject to mental illness, life disappointment, failed relationships, trauma, and stress-related disorders. All these factors may play a role in the leaders' foreign policy decisions. The leader's moral and religious beliefs also influence those decisions.

The leaders' past unique personal experiences may influence foreign policy decisions. Their past political and administrative experiences or their service in the military (or their avoidance of that service) make them more familiar with, more comfortable with, and better able to deal with one set of foreign policy options over another. For example, President Bill Clinton's failure to provide adequate tactical support for United States troops in Somalia, and the subsequent ambush, death, and desecration of the corpses of those troops, was possibly the consequence of Clinton's lack of familiarity with the most basic fundamentals of military operations. His lack of familiarity with these basic platoon-level fundamentals was possibly a consequence of his active avoidance of military service in his younger years. It is doubtful a president with World War II, Korean War or Vietnam-era military service basic training would make such grievous errors in basic military tactics.

The leaders' past personal working relationships with foreign leaders influences the leaders willingness to work with those foreign leaders in the future. The working relationship between Central Intelligence Agency chief George Bush and Panamanian military officer Manuel Noriega influences their later working relationship when both are presidents of their respective countries. President Bush's obsession with capturing President Noriega and branding him a "drug runner" appears to be as much a personal issue personal as a matter of sound foreign policy. Other experiences affecting the foreign policy-makers decisions include exposure to various teachers in college, peer and mentoring relationships during the formative career-building years, and travel abroad.

Finally, the transactional states which leaders use in dealing with one another also help shape foreign policy. Leaders speak to one another and respond to one another from parent, child or adult states. "Parents" are authoritarian; "children" are disobedient and contrary; "adults" are rational. When American President George Bush takes a "parent" state in admonishing Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to cease acts of aggression or to submit to the discipline of arms inspections, President Bush should not be surprised when Saddam Hussein responds from a "child" state and invades his neighboring states or resists the discipline by any means possible. The transactional states in international exchanges can have a significant impact of the policy options selected by those in foreign policy decision-making positions.

Principle 7:

Beliefs and Cognitions of Top Officials

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